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Sample recovery Chemical Industry: PTA corporate spreads narrow


Securities Times| 07/07/2009 17:08:19
Business agency hearing on July 3 as a result of new refined oil pricing mechanism will enable significant improvements in profitability of the petrochemical, oil refining plate allows access to a relatively stable operating profit, from a substantial loss in 2008 of the situation, Sinopec is expected to drive performance increased dramatically.

Galaxy Securities, said the study, in 2009, Sinopec plans to process 184 million tons of crude oil, producing 115 million tons of refined oil. Forecast for Sinopec in 2009 a barrel of oil refineries operating profit of about 4 U.S. dollars, 12 billion barrels in oil refining, oil refining business in profit at 330 billion yuan. Sinopec Sales Division monthly profit of 10 billion yuan, 12.0 billion full-year profits to be completed. Therefore, the refinery sales in 2009 of around 45 billion yuan to contribute pre-tax performance, contribution to net profit扣税后around 35 billion yuan, equivalent to contribute to 2009 earnings per share of around 0.40 yuan, which constitute the main force of the company's profit.

Galaxy Securities, said the study, the increase in refined oil prices will change the prices of raw materials to the oil refining industry, the adverse situation, the future will be relatively stable refining margins. The refined oil price is the price mechanism in the new provisions after the introduction of the second price increase reflects the implementation of China's refined oil prices with the international market in crude oil prices into an indirect, although the "management of oil prices" is a transitional measures, but twice in a month increase reflects the Government's "management practices in oil prices," the Executive's determination, refining and marketing will be high profits are protected. With the competitive market structure, as well as improve the market system, prices for domestic oil products market competition will eventually be formed. "Management of oil prices (for trial implementation)" indicates that China's refined oil prices towards market-oriented reforms and a big push forward. Long-term, the refined oil market price will be. Refined oil price hike of raw materials prices may change brought about by the oil refining industry in an unfavorable situation, the future will be relatively stable refining margins.

China Sinopec exploration plan in 2009 the production of the year 42.4 million tons of crude oil, 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas. The first quarter is expected to produce 88.82 million barrels of oil equivalent (oil and gas), according to 45 U.S. dollars converted WTI oil prices per barrel equivalent of oil and gas sales to 270 yuan, equivalent to 35.2 U.S. dollars / barrel. At present, Sinopec exploration plate cost 14.66 U.S. dollars / barrel (not including the oil fields of labor, management, financial, depreciation and other costs), the equivalent of 100 RMB / barrel, therefore, the current gross profit per barrel of oil at 170 yuan, it is China petrochemical exploration plate margin for the first quarter of 8882 × 170 = 151 billion. Estimated exploration plate at 600 billion yuan of Maori, but as a result of 14.66 U.S. dollars / barrel did not calculate the cost of labor, management, financial, depreciation and other costs not included in income tax, the taxes and fees deduction if all the oil exploration company board Net income is expected to contribute 150 billion yuan, equivalent to exploration results in 2009 contributed to earnings per share of around 0.17 yuan, with the recent performance of the year than the decline in exploration, but the company accounted for relatively small impact overall performance.

China Merchants Securities research report that the price adjustment, on the one hand firmly on the market's confidence in the new mechanism, the other hand will help to enhance the performance of the two companies. Shares of the impact of the two companies are positive. The sheer flexibility of the performance of view, the price of the shares on the impact of China's oil too. However, the price determined the impact of market mechanisms, and the current economic situation into the price of the honeymoon period, and shares of Sinopec previously given a lot of discount (currently with the China Petroleum and Sinopec's shares reached a 40% gap) Therefore, the price of Sinopec will be a greater positive impact.